Sunday, January 30, 2011

Jan. 30-31 updates

TUNISIA
• International media and the community of nations, in their hustle to the next crisis in Cairo, are missing out on critical moments of Tunisia's transition. The general feeling our friends convey is that the security situation is improving, but the political situation is stagnating, refusing to move in one way or the other. If things go badly in Tunisia, we'll look back on last week and this week as the time when it all went wrong, as the West neglected Tunisia while enthralled by Egyptian events.
• Our friends recommend this article from Le Monde. Google translate it; it's not bad.
• Our friends have complained that freedom of the press is, shall we say, underdeveloped at this point, no matter what the official line is from the government. NYT shooter was injured today by the cops.
• Rachid Ghannouchi came back yesterday. Thousands of adoring fans met him at Tunis-Carthage Intl Airport. But there's a lot more happening behind the scenes, according to our friends. Phrases like 'civil war' are being bandied about. People who bore the brunt of the conflict feel very much as if the revolution and movement toward the future is being hijacked by the Islamist Ennadha party. Our friends represent a well-educated, urbane section of Tunisian society - the people who saw through Ben Ali, and seem right now to be seeing through Ghannouchi.
• Major skirmishes in downtown Tunis along Ave HB today. Plenty of video on FB and YouTube if you care to watch.
• Lawlessness continues on the frontier. The city of which they speak here is the one we commonly spell Kasserine.
• Damn, my assets are FREEZING! Osterreich is latest to lock down Ben Ali funds.
UNHR meeting with Cabinet this weekend.

EGYPT
• A million man march is planned for tomorrow. Unlike the eponymous event in the United States, this one may actually attract a million humans. Who are angry at one particular human.
• When Israel says they 'fear' something, look out. A destabilized Egypt isn't exactly an existential threat to Israel, but it makes a lot of things politically more difficult if Gaza essentially becomes open.
• The Egyptian Army is playing this really coooool. They haven't lost either Mubarak's, or the public's, confidence. It becomes increasingly interesting with each passing day to see how they play their hand.
• It sounds more and more as if AMB Wisner is on an ultimatum mission; tell Mubarak to either open up society, or we're withdrawing aid and support.
• US to citizens: Beat feet. Now.
• How bad are things in Egypt? Even Tunisia says to it's expats, "Dude, you need to get out of THAT mess!"

ELSEWHERE
• Our friends say that Feb. 5 has been declared a "Day of Anger" at the Syrian government, with nationwide protests planned.
• Protests in Northern Sudan claim one already.

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