Sunday, January 16, 2011

Jan. 16 updates

One of our friends had a prophetic and profound statement earlier today on FB. To paraphrase in English, she said that the race to democracy has been miles and miles of running. But now we are in the last 100 meters, and they are the most critical leg of the race.
Developments on the ground have been mixed; it's very clear to everyone that the Army is really running things. But there are also a number of developments in government and civil society worth noting. The violence has calmed down from its peak on the evening Ben Ali abdicated, but things remain very tense.

(updates, 1415 ET)
• Tunisie Actualite confirms the arrest of eight Europeans in a car full of weapons. They've been transfered to government custody.
• Just confirmed: The new national government will be announced Monday on TNT.


• French photojournalist Lucas Dolega was confirmed dead today. Dolega was hit at close range by a tear gas grenade. His final images can be seen here. (Note, 1709 ET: There is a claim that Dolega is still alive from the French Foreign Ministry).
• Live fire still reported sporadically in Tunis. Tunisia actualite reporting that two snipers have been killed on roofs near the clock square on Ave HB.
• Social media forward going around telling people to stay off the streets - that a demonstration called for in the Tunis city center is, in fact, a ploy by the old gov't to get everyone in one place to be 'the targets for Ben Ali's snipers.'
• Rumors flying fast and furious about new Cabinet appointments, perhaps to be announced tomorrow.
• This is completely unconfirmed, but one of our friends says that the power-sharing agreement coming about right now will result in a Cabinet broken in thirds: One third will be remnants of PM Ghannouchi's government. One third will be members of the current, so-called 'legal opposition' parties, and the remaining third will be assorted human rights and women's rights activists. It's important to note that Tunisia, more than any other Arab nation, has worked diligently to promote and preserve women's rights.
• In a sign of normalcy, there's a social media movement urging people to go out during the daylight hours and tidy the cities up a bit by picking up debris. The neighborhood defense organizations are also being asked to provide protection for storekeepers during the day so the stores can safely reopen. Our friends report that many people are running desperately short of bread, milk, and other staples because there's simply no place open to purchase more.

From the media...
EXCEPTIONAL piece about the U.S.'s possible future role in all of this from AJE. I would call this one of the few must-read pieces about the Tunisian situation as it relates to the United States.
Confirmation of what our friends reported yesterday about Ben Ali's security chief being arrested. They nabbed him trying to cross into Libya.
• The fantastic Sultan al-Qassemi, whose Twitter feed has been quick and uniformly accurate, reports that there have been two separate incidents in which European passport-holders have been arrested while in possession of weapons, or attacking opposition party areas.
• Speaking of Libya, I FB'd some of the highlights from a typically bizarre outburst from Libya's Col. Muammar Qaddafi last night. It was nothing short of awesome. My favorite phrases - as read on SultanAlQassemi@Twitter were Facebook as "Bookface," calling Eastern Europeans "retards," and claiming the Assange & the WikiLeaks people were nothing better than "drunkards." In fairness to the Colonel, I don't have any first-hand knowledge of the Wikileaks staff's drinking habits. And, PS, if the Tunisians would just accept his Third Universal Theory of government, all would be well.
• This is PRICELESS. Slim Chaboub is piously telling the media that Ben Ali, himself, wasn't bad - it was his advisers. (Does this remind anyone else of a line from 'Raising Arizona'?)
• This doesn't happen often, but I agree completely with something Saeb Erakat said. Bibi Netanyahu is claiming that the Tunisian revolution is a sign of regional instability, and is one of the reasons he's uncomfortable with the peace process! Netanyahu's claim that stabilizing the entire reason is a prereq for negotiations is just silly.
• There are (IMHO) overstated reports about protest movements throughout the Arab world, as everyone wonders which country's government will fall next. To me, these reports smack of the Western world's long-held belief that 'all (insert ethnic group here) countries are the same!' Tunisia's situation shared some characteristics with other regimes, but Tunisian society is vastly, vastly different than other societies across the so-called "Arab world." In interest of completeness of reporting, the specific countries reporting scattered protests are Libya, Jordan, and Egypt.
• This might win the award for weirdest story to develop out of this: Italian circus wants out of Tunisia!

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