Friday, January 28, 2011

Jan. 28 updates

EGYPT
* (Update, 1310 ET): You can almost sense where it's going now; the people are in the streets, embracing the military and chanting 'the military and the people are one!' These soldiers won't follow orders; at least, not all of them will. In his desperation, Mubarak is expaning a curfew nationwide, but it probably won't make a difference. The footage coming across is nothing short of breathtaking.

* (Update 1235 ET): Egyptian situation is obviously changing very quickly. What is happening in Egypt's response is very, very different from what happened in Tunisia. We'll see if the results are the same in time. Here are the salient points to consider in the similarities and differences between Ben Ali's response and Mubarak's:
-- Mubarak shut down as much social media as he could in a hurry.And still, the people organized. This either gives lie to the meme that the Tunisian Revolution was a 'Twitter Revolution' (lord, I'm tired of hearing that), or it proves that you can't effectively counteract social media. Time will tell.
-- Egyptian 'police' are going room to room in hotels along the main areas of Cairo and confiscating people's cameras. Ben Ali wouldn't have dreamed of offending the 'guests.' Even if Mubarak retains power, he's just cost his nation the lucrative tourist trade with one clumsy move.
-- Opposition leaders - not bloggers! - are the ones being rounded up as the usual suspects.
-- The military has been deployed to the cities, and so far, they seem to be following orders. This was the critical moment in Tunisia - once Ben Ali lost the military, his reign was over in hours. Can Mubarak keep the military loyal, even to the point of killing their own countrymen?
-- Mubarak is about to give his evening address. We know that he's already sent the family packing to Britain. Is he going to give an inch, and lose the kingdom like Ben Ali tonight? Or is he going to shed the entire veneer of democracy and tell people to buckle up - we're coming for you.

* Massive protests in Cairo today after Friday prayers; Mubarak's men tear gassed and water cannon'ed the demonstrators. Mohamed ElBaradai is leading from the front, and coming across more and more as a genuine hero in this.


TUNISIA
* Kicking Belhassan Trabelsi out of Canada may be no easy task, reports the Globe & Mail.
* Here's the WP's obligatory "Ben Ali's family lived extravagantly!" story. You're about two weeks late to the party on this one, Post.
* A little more detail today from Reuters on the government reshuffle. It now appears the UGTT will NOT accept this government composition. One has to wonder: Does the union have the interests of Tunisia first, or does the union have the interests of the union first?
* An interesting report from NPR about how the White House is having a hard time figuring out a rational and consistent response to the demonstrations across the Arab world sparked by the Tunisian Revolution. There was a great quote in an NYT column from Mohamed ElBaradai the other day about the slow-footed American response that sheds much light on the entire situation - to paraphrase, the the U.S. hems and haws, the stronger the fundamentalists become, and the weaker the moderates become. As we're starting to see, albeit too slowly, American foreign policy seems to finally be recognizing this, and gradually withdrawing scaffolding from under our old dictator buddies.

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