Friday, February 4, 2011

Feb. 4 updates

TUNISIA
• Dear France: Prepare for blowback. Turns out the French supplied tear gas to Ben Ali's goons two days before he beat feet. Let's make it worse: In the midst of the unrest, Michele Alliot-Marie, the French foreign minister, decided to come down to Tunisia to vacation a bit - on a plane owned by one of Ben Ali's cronies. And then let's put a nice little evil cherry on top: In October, the French trained the Egyptian state police in crowd control. Nice reportage, LAT.
• Ouch - tourism took a 40% hit during the January unrest. For a nation whose economy is largely dependent on this industry, this is a major, major setback. With luck, it will bounce back for the important March-April season. Disney's cutting Tunisia as a stop on their Mediterranean lines. It's a damn shame. But - lemons from lemonade, right? The provisional government's tourism minister says he expects the new openness to attract more tourists eventually.
• Talk about burying the lede. This AFP story talks about how life is returning to normal in Tunis & Gabes... and then near the very end says that there have been more protests in Sidi Bou Zid after two detained men were brought to the hospital by the cops... with suspicious marks on their bodies.
• This kind of bugs me. The administration people are obviously leaking their dissatisfaction with the quality of intelligence regarding the collapse of Ben Ali, and the unrest in Egypt. And I'm thinking: Are you kidding? Number one, anyone in the White House who gives a whit about the Mideast and North Africa ought to have one window open to AJE all day. They called Tunisia back around New Year's Day; so did the estimable Marc Lynch by Jan. 5, and Sultan al-Qassemi, whose reporting was absolutely top-shelf. God, I'm not tooting my own horn, but if a high school teacher from a town of 900 people could figure this out by about a week out, I have no doubt that the much smarter people in the professional intel community had it. Hell, the Wikileaks cables prove that Godec was sending back intel about the regime's lack of support a year or so prior! What's troubling to me is not the intel that the administration may or may not have received, but the fact that their initial reactions were not just hesitant, but contradictory from time to time - even with the secretary on the ground in the Arab world. Blaming the intel seems to me to be a way to CYA for a slow-footed reaction.

EGYPT
• Obama's line on Mubarak has been getting harder. Today's take: Egypt needs to enter transition phase immediately.
• If you want to read the really crazy s***, check out WND's Egypt coverage. But first, be sure to put tinfoil over your head. And if you want the Things That Make You Go Hmm, read the Guardian's round-up of right-wing talk radio's 'analysis.'

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