TUNISIA
• If you've never listened to APR's "The Story, with Dick Gordon," you're missing out on the best show on radio. Last night, he featured the story of a young Tunisian-American woman who returned to the Maghreb to be part of the change. Just a fantastic piece.
• More reliable numbers are coming out regarding the death toll in the Tunisian Revolution - though there's still some disparity. These numbers are a LOT closer to what we were tallying - from social media and traditional media accounts, I had an informal count of 188 dead. Reuters says the UNHR team has the number at 147; while BBC is claiming 219. Considering the interim government had a total of 78, and Ben Ali was saying 32, I think these numbers are a lot more honest, if not precise...
• Not trying to beat a dead horse, but...
-- International media is falling over itself writing stories that fall into two categories about Islamist Ennadha Party leader Rachid Ghannouchi's return. Some stories (e.g., Al-Jazeera) say that he's nothing to worry about - a religious man who respects secular society. Other stories (e.g., Wall St. Journal) say he's an advance man for al-Qaeda. But let's listen to people actually from Tunisia. One of our friends wrote last night: "ghanouchi is really dangerous dangerous for tunisia!!" He's not alone; of my dozen or so friends in Tunisia, each of them has had a message of concern or worry about Ennadha hijacking the revolution and twisting it to their message. Ennadha's strength is in the interior and the south - it will be absolutely critical when Tunisians revise or rewrite their constitution after formation of the new government that representation in a new legislature is based on more of a 'Virginia Plan' than a 'New Jersey Plan' (to steal a few American metaphors). If each governorate gets equal power, Ennadha would have a real chance of dominating the country. But if there's representation based on population, the religiously-fundamentalist Ennadha will be to Tunisia as the Constitutionally-fundamentalist Tea Party is to the US - a fringe group with strongly-held ideas who can influence the debate, but not actually implement purist doctrine.
• ICRC is finally getting into prisons that had been closed to international inspection for decades.
• Very good analysis piece from CNN about how the Tunisian/Egyptian situations weaken al-Qaeda, instead of the other way around. As my friend Matthew wrote about this column: "The party line from the loonies has always been that violence is not just associated with government change, but that violence is REQUIRED for government change. This is the bad idea they stole from Lenin, and has been the root cause of nearly every act of wholesale slaughter since WWI. Tunisia has shown them another way."
• EU has frozen all Ben Ali family assets in member nations.
• There's so much to be learned in the differences between the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. NPR is reporting on the power vacuum if/when Mubarak finally falls. In Tunisia, that vacuum was filled in about 48 hours by a professional and low-key military. I am still not sure if my Tunisian friends realize how fortunate they were at those critical moments.
EGYPT
• You owe it to yourself to watch some of the video coming out of Tahrir Square from the Million Man March today. It's truly breathtaking, and somewhat sobering as an American - is there anything Americans care about enough anymore to take to the streets?
• If you're one of the six people left who believe that the free market provides the best predictive intel about outcomes, then Egypt's about to stabilize. Oil prices came down under $100/bbl today.
• A pretty interesting column from the Sydney Morning Herald. It spells out the doom and gloom scenarios for Israel if a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated coalition comes to power in Egypt. The column calls out the US and the Quartet for their ineffectual peace process. The column nibbles around the edges of the biggest problem: Israel, Egypt, and Jordan never had any incentive to actually reach a 'two-state solution.' The US kept the money flowing to these three nations as part of the process... so why would they ever want the process to end? Now, as the underpinnings of the process are in shambles, Israel will have tough decisions to make - and Israel's tradition of shoot-first-ask-questions-later might suggest that the next year or two will be very, very interesting in the Sinai.
• Hey, Iran: SHUT UP!
ELSEWHERE
• Jordan's Abdullah Deuce dismisses government, reorganizes in response to protests. More and more, I'm thinking my Jordanian student might be right that Jordan's next.
• Syria's Assad says his country will be immune to revolution, but there are lessons to be learned. Bashar says Syria is stable because everyone hates Israel. Hmmph.
• If you've never listened to APR's "The Story, with Dick Gordon," you're missing out on the best show on radio. Last night, he featured the story of a young Tunisian-American woman who returned to the Maghreb to be part of the change. Just a fantastic piece.
• More reliable numbers are coming out regarding the death toll in the Tunisian Revolution - though there's still some disparity. These numbers are a LOT closer to what we were tallying - from social media and traditional media accounts, I had an informal count of 188 dead. Reuters says the UNHR team has the number at 147; while BBC is claiming 219. Considering the interim government had a total of 78, and Ben Ali was saying 32, I think these numbers are a lot more honest, if not precise...
• Not trying to beat a dead horse, but...
-- International media is falling over itself writing stories that fall into two categories about Islamist Ennadha Party leader Rachid Ghannouchi's return. Some stories (e.g., Al-Jazeera) say that he's nothing to worry about - a religious man who respects secular society. Other stories (e.g., Wall St. Journal) say he's an advance man for al-Qaeda. But let's listen to people actually from Tunisia. One of our friends wrote last night: "ghanouchi is really dangerous dangerous for tunisia!!" He's not alone; of my dozen or so friends in Tunisia, each of them has had a message of concern or worry about Ennadha hijacking the revolution and twisting it to their message. Ennadha's strength is in the interior and the south - it will be absolutely critical when Tunisians revise or rewrite their constitution after formation of the new government that representation in a new legislature is based on more of a 'Virginia Plan' than a 'New Jersey Plan' (to steal a few American metaphors). If each governorate gets equal power, Ennadha would have a real chance of dominating the country. But if there's representation based on population, the religiously-fundamentalist Ennadha will be to Tunisia as the Constitutionally-fundamentalist Tea Party is to the US - a fringe group with strongly-held ideas who can influence the debate, but not actually implement purist doctrine.
• ICRC is finally getting into prisons that had been closed to international inspection for decades.
• Very good analysis piece from CNN about how the Tunisian/Egyptian situations weaken al-Qaeda, instead of the other way around. As my friend Matthew wrote about this column: "The party line from the loonies has always been that violence is not just associated with government change, but that violence is REQUIRED for government change. This is the bad idea they stole from Lenin, and has been the root cause of nearly every act of wholesale slaughter since WWI. Tunisia has shown them another way."
• EU has frozen all Ben Ali family assets in member nations.
• There's so much to be learned in the differences between the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. NPR is reporting on the power vacuum if/when Mubarak finally falls. In Tunisia, that vacuum was filled in about 48 hours by a professional and low-key military. I am still not sure if my Tunisian friends realize how fortunate they were at those critical moments.
EGYPT
• You owe it to yourself to watch some of the video coming out of Tahrir Square from the Million Man March today. It's truly breathtaking, and somewhat sobering as an American - is there anything Americans care about enough anymore to take to the streets?
• If you're one of the six people left who believe that the free market provides the best predictive intel about outcomes, then Egypt's about to stabilize. Oil prices came down under $100/bbl today.
• A pretty interesting column from the Sydney Morning Herald. It spells out the doom and gloom scenarios for Israel if a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated coalition comes to power in Egypt. The column calls out the US and the Quartet for their ineffectual peace process. The column nibbles around the edges of the biggest problem: Israel, Egypt, and Jordan never had any incentive to actually reach a 'two-state solution.' The US kept the money flowing to these three nations as part of the process... so why would they ever want the process to end? Now, as the underpinnings of the process are in shambles, Israel will have tough decisions to make - and Israel's tradition of shoot-first-ask-questions-later might suggest that the next year or two will be very, very interesting in the Sinai.
• Hey, Iran: SHUT UP!
ELSEWHERE
• Jordan's Abdullah Deuce dismisses government, reorganizes in response to protests. More and more, I'm thinking my Jordanian student might be right that Jordan's next.
• Syria's Assad says his country will be immune to revolution, but there are lessons to be learned. Bashar says Syria is stable because everyone hates Israel. Hmmph.
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