Ben Ali addressed the Tunisian people on state TV this evening, denouncing the protesters as 'terrorists,' and promising more job creation money.
It ratchets up the regime's rhetoric - terrorist is just as loaded a word in North Africa as it is in the United States. Further, it starts to limit the possible outcomes of this movement. From the beginning, I've personally wondered what the endgame is here - how does this end well? Here are a couple of the possible - though not all are likely - outcomes I can foresee.
1.) Violent crackdown, mass arrests: Unfortunately, I think this is the direction in which things are headed. By branding the protesters as terrorists, Ben Ali is now forced to deal with them in a heavy-handed manner. Reports tonight of cities and towns being cut off by the introduction of active-duty troops would seem to indicate that Ben Ali is intensifying the crackdown.
2.) Option 1, light: Big roundups, show of force, and then a few months down the road, presidential clemency to show what a 'big man' Ben Ali is. He's played this card in the past.
3.) In 2014, Ben Ali's term is over. No heir apparent has been named, though one of the sons-in-law has been mentioned. After the past few weeks, it's hard to imagine any scenario in which the Tunisian people would accept an election rigged in the favor of the Trabelsi-Ben Ali status quo. Change may not come overnight - and change will probably take some body blows over the next weeks. But I think that the hits the opposition is getting in now will pay dividends in later rounds.
Unfortunately, an option I don't see as likely is one that al-Jazeera's played up a bit: Government collapse. AJE was trumpeting rumors that the presidential plane was gassed and ready to go if the stuff really hit the fan; one Guardian writer said it felt like Romania in '89. I just don't see it; the situation is just comfortable enough for just enough people to make this likely unless Ben Ali dramatically overplays his hand, and loses the faith and favor of the military.
The next 24 hours will probably provide a lot of answers; but those answers will have a lot of inherent questions.
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