Jan. 30-31 updates

TUNISIA
• International media and the community of nations, in their hustle to the next crisis in Cairo, are missing out on critical moments of Tunisia's transition. The general feeling our friends convey is that the security situation is improving, but the political situation is stagnating, refusing to move in one way or the other. If things go badly in Tunisia, we'll look back on last week and this week as the time when it all went wrong, as the West neglected Tunisia while enthralled by Egyptian events.
• Our friends recommend this article from Le Monde. Google translate it; it's not bad.
• Our friends have complained that freedom of the press is, shall we say, underdeveloped at this point, no matter what the official line is from the government. NYT shooter was injured today by the cops.
• Rachid Ghannouchi came back yesterday. Thousands of adoring fans met him at Tunis-Carthage Intl Airport. But there's a lot more happening behind the scenes, according to our friends. Phrases like 'civil war' are being bandied about. People who bore the brunt of the conflict feel very much as if the revolution and movement toward the future is being hijacked by the Islamist Ennadha party. Our friends represent a well-educated, urbane section of Tunisian society - the people who saw through Ben Ali, and seem right now to be seeing through Ghannouchi.
• Major skirmishes in downtown Tunis along Ave HB today. Plenty of video on FB and YouTube if you care to watch.
• Lawlessness continues on the frontier. The city of which they speak here is the one we commonly spell Kasserine.
• Damn, my assets are FREEZING! Osterreich is latest to lock down Ben Ali funds.
• UNHR meeting with Cabinet this weekend.

EGYPT
• A million man march is planned for tomorrow. Unlike the eponymous event in the United States, this one may actually attract a million humans. Who are angry at one particular human.
• When Israel says they 'fear' something, look out. A destabilized Egypt isn't exactly an existential threat to Israel, but it makes a lot of things politically more difficult if Gaza essentially becomes open.
• The Egyptian Army is playing this really coooool. They haven't lost either Mubarak's, or the public's, confidence. It becomes increasingly interesting with each passing day to see how they play their hand.
• It sounds more and more as if AMB Wisner is on an ultimatum mission; tell Mubarak to either open up society, or we're withdrawing aid and support.
• US to citizens: Beat feet. Now.
• How bad are things in Egypt? Even Tunisia says to it's expats, "Dude, you need to get out of THAT mess!"

ELSEWHERE
• Our friends say that Feb. 5 has been declared a "Day of Anger" at the Syrian government, with nationwide protests planned.
• Protests in Northern Sudan claim one already.

Jan. 29 updates

EGYPT
• We're used to seeing history repeat itself. We're used to people not learning lessons from ancient history. But not learning lessons from two weeks ago?! In the fine line Obama is attempting to walk from last night's speech, he's putting himself in a no-win situation. Mubarak isn't going to last forever; at the rate we're going, he may not last until the next Friday prayers. So if you know your guy isn't going to be your guy for long, it's time to (if not cut him loose) at least be publicly supportive of the protestors.
No matter what happens, the other side of this transition is going to be chaotic, frightening, and confusing. If we lend a little support, at least it will mitigate some of the blow-back we're going to get after supporting Mubarak for years and years.
• Curfew? What curfew? Egyptians are holding their curfew in even lower regard than the Tunisians did. In Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, the reports indicate that the soldiers are not only unwilling to fire, they're admitting that the only way this ends is for Mubarak to step down.

TUNISIA
• The General hits the big time! A big rally and concert planned for central Tunis will feature the rapper whose arrest was a turning point in the capital city protests in early January.
• This sort of cracks me up. I desperately hope that Mubarak falls tomorrow, because Rashid el-Ghannouchi has planned his big, melodramatic return to Tunisia for tomorrow. He was counting on the world press covering his triumphant return, and it would be just about right if events got ahead of him, too, as he carpetbags on the people's revolution.
• Tunisia's open for business! That's what the central banking chief says!
• The US is easing its travel advisory for Tunisia.
• Given the Hairdresser's current condition, the Arab Women's League will be transferring its presidency...

JORDAN
• Is Jordan next? One of my students, who lived in Jordan until 2002, claims the family back home say yes. Reports indicate large protests in Amman, and the same food price pressures are eating away at the Jordanian regime.

Jan. 28 updates

EGYPT
* (Update, 1310 ET): You can almost sense where it's going now; the people are in the streets, embracing the military and chanting 'the military and the people are one!' These soldiers won't follow orders; at least, not all of them will. In his desperation, Mubarak is expaning a curfew nationwide, but it probably won't make a difference. The footage coming across is nothing short of breathtaking.

* (Update 1235 ET): Egyptian situation is obviously changing very quickly. What is happening in Egypt's response is very, very different from what happened in Tunisia. We'll see if the results are the same in time. Here are the salient points to consider in the similarities and differences between Ben Ali's response and Mubarak's:
-- Mubarak shut down as much social media as he could in a hurry.And still, the people organized. This either gives lie to the meme that the Tunisian Revolution was a 'Twitter Revolution' (lord, I'm tired of hearing that), or it proves that you can't effectively counteract social media. Time will tell.
-- Egyptian 'police' are going room to room in hotels along the main areas of Cairo and confiscating people's cameras. Ben Ali wouldn't have dreamed of offending the 'guests.' Even if Mubarak retains power, he's just cost his nation the lucrative tourist trade with one clumsy move.
-- Opposition leaders - not bloggers! - are the ones being rounded up as the usual suspects.
-- The military has been deployed to the cities, and so far, they seem to be following orders. This was the critical moment in Tunisia - once Ben Ali lost the military, his reign was over in hours. Can Mubarak keep the military loyal, even to the point of killing their own countrymen?
-- Mubarak is about to give his evening address. We know that he's already sent the family packing to Britain. Is he going to give an inch, and lose the kingdom like Ben Ali tonight? Or is he going to shed the entire veneer of democracy and tell people to buckle up - we're coming for you.

* Massive protests in Cairo today after Friday prayers; Mubarak's men tear gassed and water cannon'ed the demonstrators. Mohamed ElBaradai is leading from the front, and coming across more and more as a genuine hero in this.


TUNISIA
* Kicking Belhassan Trabelsi out of Canada may be no easy task, reports the Globe & Mail.
* Here's the WP's obligatory "Ben Ali's family lived extravagantly!" story. You're about two weeks late to the party on this one, Post.
* A little more detail today from Reuters on the government reshuffle. It now appears the UGTT will NOT accept this government composition. One has to wonder: Does the union have the interests of Tunisia first, or does the union have the interests of the union first?
* An interesting report from NPR about how the White House is having a hard time figuring out a rational and consistent response to the demonstrations across the Arab world sparked by the Tunisian Revolution. There was a great quote in an NYT column from Mohamed ElBaradai the other day about the slow-footed American response that sheds much light on the entire situation - to paraphrase, the the U.S. hems and haws, the stronger the fundamentalists become, and the weaker the moderates become. As we're starting to see, albeit too slowly, American foreign policy seems to finally be recognizing this, and gradually withdrawing scaffolding from under our old dictator buddies.

Jan. 27 updates

TUNISIA
• Ghannouchi forms another new government. This time, he's the only old RCD hand in the mix - all of the new ministers are people who never held RCD membership. There is considerable disagreement as to whether or not the UGTT is supporting the new government or not, both among international media and among our friends..
• Tucked into the end of this AJE article: UGTT wants a council of 'wise men' to advise the government. So, what ARE Balthazar, Melchior, and Caspar up to these days?
• Score! The Canadian government revokes Belhassan Trabelsi's citizenship. Let's see if Sakhr el-Marti's next.
• Justice Minister announces formal charges again Ben Ali, et. al.
• In the least surprising news ever, Amnesty International says Ben Ali's security forces acted brutally.
• In related news, UNHR's team arrived this week.
• Our people say that disbursements of money are now going out to families of the 'martyrs' of the revolution.

YEMEN
• Of all the Arab nations, Yemen might be the last in which you'd expect to see street protests against the government. And yet... here we go again.

Jan. 26 updates

TUNISIA
* Last night, Tunisia finally got mention on the biggest stage. Near the end of Obama's State of the Union address, he said that the United States "stands with the people of Tunisia, and all people striving for democracy." It was the clearest, and loudest, statement of support thus far from Washington - and on a day where Egyptians took to the streets in one of the largest protests in that nation in years. Boston Globe has a nice eddy on it today.
* The interim government has issued arrest warrants for Ben Ali and certain members of The Family, both in Saudi Arabia, and the Sakhr el-Matri gang in Canada. They're asking Interpol for help in apprehending them.
* AJE: The government is going to announce ANOTHER Cabinet re-shuffle today.
* Government sources say that more than 11,000 prisoners escaped from Tunisian jails in the chaos after Ben Ali's departure.
* Assistant SecState Jeff Feldman was in Tunis this week. US is offering help in recovering assets, and calling on the interim government to respond to the will of the people...
* Globe and Mail has a must-read. They confirm that Belhassen Trabelsi arrived in Montreal last week, meaning that along with Sakhr el-Matri, two of the worst of the Trabelsi gang have pretty much gotten away with it. Most interesting, in the context of the rumor we heard last week that Ben Ali himself may alight for Canada, is the fact that under Canadian refugee law, they could probably all go there, and stay damn near indefinitely as legal issues played themselves out.
* This NYT article talks about how there are still scattered protests on the streets, and still some anger about the composition of the interim government. But what I'm picking up on from my friends is not any sense of injustice in the transitional government, but a deep sense of frustration that life has not returned to even 80% normal. One friend noted that 'there's still nothing to do, no work, no school.' And work and school have changed for a lot of people; one friend's job at a media outlet disappeared because the outlet's director was a Ben Ali crony - verboten in the 'new normal.' Another institution with which we're familiar has sacked people for being too close to the old regime. It seems to this observer that the uncertainty; uncertainty about employment, about government, about the economy, about security is the biggest issue in Tunisie right now. Let's get a side of stability with this main course of freedom.

EGYPT
* Once again, one needs to voice caution in comparing Egypt's situation to Tunisia's. Tunisia is smaller, wealthier, more secular, and better educated. Plus, Tunisia's military was largely apolitical - and Ben Ali actually believed his own hype about the people loving him. Hosni Mubarak's Egypt is a completely different scene - the powerful Muslim Brotherhood waiting in the wings; poverty at a scale unheard of in Tunisia; large, uneducated masses. And Mubarak and his military? Peas in a pod.
Or at least, that's the way it looks from the outside. What's interesting for our discussion are the similarities between the Egyptian situation right now and the developments that led to Ben Ali's ouster. Consider, if you will, the following...
* Does this sound familiar? Mubarak's son beat feet for Britain last night. Kind of like Sakhr el-Matri's unexpected trip to Canada four days before Ben Ali fell in Tunisia?
* Does this sound familiar? Egyptian markets plummeting because of the unrest.
* Egyptian authorities seem to have learned at least one thing from Tunisia: Pull the plug on Twitter and Facebook, and quickly.

Jan. 25 updates... the revolution spreads?

THE NEIGHBORHOOD'S GETTING INTERESTING
* The top news from the Maghreb today is the mass rioting in Egypt. Obviously, the Egyptians have been emboldened by the events in Tunisia - but again, let's not get carried away and call it the Twitter Revolution or any such nonsense. Mubarak - unlike Ben Ali - has dealt with this sort of thing before. His regime has always been a lot more stable than other such dictatorships. This will be a dangerous time - misplay even one hand, and you could find yourself in Jeddah (if it happens, we know a good Hairdresser!).
* Self-immolations continue in Algeria at an alarming rate; alarming in many ways. The Tunisians took to the streets quickly after the much smaller rash of desperate suicides. In Algeria, the public seems to just be hanging back... despite the fact that the overall standard of living was far, far lower than Tunisia.
* In the broader Arab world, there's a major story that has been developing over the past week from al-Jazeera. They got ahold of documents from inside the peace process, which they've termed the Palestine Papers. It's one hell of a look inside the negotiations, in which the Palestinians offered everything but the kitchen sink, and Israel refused to budge. You've also got the collapse of the formerly-promising government in Lebanon. I still think people are overreaching when they say that Tunisia was the beginning of a wave of democracy throughout the Arab states. But it sure does seem like there's a lot happening, all at once, and it's hard to imagine all of it happening absent the successful (so far) Tunisian revolution.

MEANWHILE, BACK ON THE RANCH...
* Gen. Rachid Ammar will go down in history in one of two ways: He will either be the next dictator, or he will be the George Washington of Tunisia - the old soldier who understood liberty, and laid down his career to protect it... or the other thing. Wouldn't it be something - wouldn't it be something! - if it was a general who was the guy who established the first homegrown democracy in the Arab world?!

Jan. 23 updates

• The country has come to the city, and not necessarily in a good way. A caravan from Sidi Bou Zid governorate has arrived in Tunis to protest; overwhelming Ghannouchi's offices and lending to a renewed climate of fear.
• France24 has a typically great piece - this about the online humor around the revolution.
• Good to see you cousin, when are you leaving?: Egyptian press report that negotiations are underway to move the Ben Alis out of Saudi Arabia, and into Egypt. Good God, if Hosni thinks he has problems NOW...
• Rachid Ghannouchi of the Islamist 'Ennadha' Party has left London, and is chillin' in the Gulf States before his expected 'big return' to Tunis.
• A few more of The Family have escaped to Canada, where they apparently have resident status.
• From one of our friends' Facebooks - the funniest YouTube you'll ever see on the Flight of the Conquereds.
• Marches are planned for Monday morning by unionists in Tunis; Gabes; Jendouba, and more.
• One radio station, and the private Hannibal network went off the air for a while, its director charged with treason. Seems ominous.

Interesting notes from Interior Minister

Ahmad Friaa, Tunisia’s interior minister, held a media availability on Friday. There was more than a little news in his remarks. Here’s the summary:

• The Green Tunisia Party, Left Socialist Party, and Patriotic and Democratic Labor Party have been approved. The Ba’ath Party applied Thursday, and is under review.

• All Tunisians may apply for passports now. No longer do you need connections to get one.

• 1,200 arrests have been made since Ben Ali’s departure. Most have been released, 382 have been charged with firearms violations, looting, et al.

• Ali Seriati’s arrest has been confirmed. He is currently ‘under interrogation.’ I’ll guess that’s not pleasant.

Jan. 22 updates

From social media:
• Some, once again, weirdly funny pictures from the Ben Ali photo album. Today's feature: Stretching and exercise!
• ALU is reporting that several members of the Ben Ali clan landed at Montreal-Trudeau airport today.
• Big marches Saturday toward the UGTT headquarters
• Classes will resume at Tunisian universities on Jan. 28. Primary and secondary schools will reopen on Jan. 24
• Rumor has it that Ben Ali met Friday with the U.S. Ambassador at the home of one of the Saudi princes. No word on what was discussed.
• New political parties applying for legal status... including the Ba'ath Party...

From traditional media:
• NYT has the best tick-tock of what led to Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation that I've read to date. Really, really exceptional reporting here!
• Mohammed Ghannouchi says he'll retire after the elections.
• Rachid Ghannouchi's pending return has sparked more media interest than just about anything else going on in Tunisia. There was a great quote I read somewhere as I put together yesterday's lost post in which someone commented that 'Islamist parties are more moderate the further they are from power.' That's a legitimate statement. Ghannouchi's maneuvering - from softening the landscape through talking about pluralism, women's rights, etc.; to his obvious plans for a BIG homecoming at Tunis-Carthage - are starting to signal that Ennadha is working on a massive strategy to hijack this secular revolution. They've probably got a chance; Like any nation (with any religion), once you get out of the cities, the commitment to secular government dissipates, and the poorer, less-educated people of the rural interior tend to be far, far, far more conservative than the coastal people and urbanites.
Ghannouchi's putting a good face on Tunisian Islamism - but we can't forget comments from 20 years ago - alleged plots to bomb tourist hotels; a call to take out American interests at the time of the Gulf War. Obviously, if Tunisia is to be a true democracy, you've got to let the guy come back. But just as obviously, the world had better hope that Tunisian media turns the same skepticism toward Ghannouchi that they turned on Ben Ali and the RCD.
--- WSJ has a pretty good article in which Ghannouchi says he isn't returning to politics, and believes in civil society, etc.
--- Time put together a piece about the rebirth of the Islamist movement in Tunisia.

• I really liked this analysis piece by William Dobson for the WP. It illustrates how, with a few deft moves, Ben Ali probably could have retained power.
• Tunisia Online News - the regime's former mouthpiece - is back up and running for the first time since Jan. 13. And, boy, what a difference a week and a half can make. Instead of the Ben Ali Hero Of The Day stories, we have something resembling news. Today's batch:
--- Schools will begin to gradually reopen this coming week.
--- Import/Export operations at Sousse are back to normal
--- Interim government orders military, police to preserve any records that can be used in prosecuting crimes under Ben Ali.
--- Police in several cities have gone on strike to protest low wages. Amazing to think that such a protest can happen, and that the state media are not just allowed to report on it, but report well. This turn of events is almost inconceivable.
I have to admit, I will sort of miss the breaking news emails I used to get from TON: "President Sends Warm Wishes to Turkmenistan on Independence Day"; "President Stresses Cooperation With Deputy Assistant Finance Minister of Moldova." They were always accompanied by a photo of Ben Ali, hard at work in the blue-wallpapered office of the President.

Jan. 21 note

iPad totally lost my post I had typed. ExpecT a big update tomorrow. Key developments...
- ghannouchi says he will retire after elections.
- aje says the Palestinian authority banned pro-Tunisian rallies today. Hmmmmh.

Jan. 20 updates

(Updates, 1445 ET)
* General amnesty has been declared for political prisoners and exiles. Bill goes to Chamber of Deputies.
* All banned political parties will be recognized.
* Beginning Friday, three days of mourning will take place to honor those killed in the month of fighting
* Banking sector bracing for losses from massive loans to The Family. International rating agencies downgrading Tunisian credit, currency.
* Nice piece from Thursday's "Diane Rehm Show" on NPR. Dr. Jebnoun's assertions about a brand new constitution are spot-on. If you don't believe me, read this summary of Tunisian government structure. (Thanks to Kristin K. for the heads-up!)

####

* The interim government is in the midst of its first meetings today. All ministers have now quit the RCD - a change of clothes was apparently necessary. Protests are going out of Tunis again, with BBC reporting Gafsa and El Kef being hit with uprisings today.
* This piece from VOA explains EXACTLY what needs to happen next from this side of the Atlantic. Impartial help with the structure of elections and in building civil society institutions. And it needs to start happening in a hurry if we're going to capitalize on this.
* NYT column echoes what came out of Le Quotidien yesterday: Ghannouchi isn't perfect, but you need a few old hands working toward transition.
* Mebazaa got on TV last night and said much the same thing: We understand that this is a revolution, we want to have elections, but we need to have this interim caretaker government to stabilize things in order to have the best conditions for an election - an election they are now saying will be in the next six months, rather than the next two, as mandated in the Tunisian constitution.
* Yesterday was a bad day to be a Trabelsi or Ben Ali. Thirty-three members of The Family were rounded up by police as a nationwide inquiry into Family finances began.
* A friend who got to Tunis on a somewhat scary Monday says that things had markedly improved by yesterday - there was food and gas to be had, people seemed to be out and about, and protests seemed to be contained to Ave HB.

Magnificent 'you-are-there' piece

If you read nothing else about the Jasmine Revolution, read this piece by Kamel Riahi in the NYT. Many of you probably don't need to know about the looting, about the political maneuvering, about the litany of crimes committed by the Ben Ali regime and family. But we do need to understand the fear, and the longing for freedom that makes that fear tolerable in ways most Americans (self included) probably can't imagine.

A Night in Tunisia by Kamel Riahi.

Jan. 19 updates

(Updates, 1144 ET)
• Apparently, FM Kamel Morjane is being recalled from the Arab League summit. Morjane alighted from Sharm el-Sheikh on a passenger flight.
• Experts see a rebound in the Tunisian economy - but it could be messy. Divorcing the Trabelsi control from everything from supermarkets to airlines to investment banks to car dealerships, then auctioning off the Trabelsi shares of the business will take time.
• VERY nice foreign policy piece on NPR.
• Economist has a nice round up of Arab press reflections.


From social media & our friends:
• Curfew scaled back to 8 p.m.
• In the purging of All Things Seven (Ben Ali's trademark for things related to The Change): Sevenair will now be known as TunisAir Express.
• Let's call this account highly dubious - it's unsourced, and it's hard to imagine how they could know all this. But TA has been really, really accurate so far, and I'm putting it out there. This is an account of Ben Ali's last hours in power. If this account is at all accurate, the United States was far more active behind the scenes than public statements would indicate. Supposedly, it was made clear to the foreign minister that further civilian casualties would result in U.S. sanctions. At first, Ben Ali thought he could go to Paris and get some good press as Tunis burned, and then when the chaos got too great, would return home triumphantly to restore order. America leaned on the French to deny Ben Ali entry; then asked the Saudis to take him. All interesting, if it's true.
• I am noticing a change in the tenor of social media statements overall among our friends. It seems many are ready to accept the interim government and get on with elections and a new start. Yet media reports that thousands are still protesting - I am wondering, exactly who are the protesters now? Unionists? Angry folks? Who is making up the bulk of the movement?

From traditional media:
• UN Human Rights team on its way to Tunis.
• The Swiss are freezing all Ben Ali/Trabelsi assets.
• Tunisian 'authorities' will investigate Ben Ali's foreign assets. Locals are pegging Ben Ali's 23-year tab around $20B USD stolen.
• More horror stories about The Hairdresser.

Jan. 18 updates

Please, Lord, tell me there was Jimmy Buffett playing in the background.

From social media & our friends:
• Ben Ali's private photo galleries. Almost make him seem human. Almost. For the record, I'd have loved to have seen the one of him sipping umbrella drinks three stories tall plastered to a building.
• Also, according to @SultanAlQassemi, Ben Ali may have forgotten to pack a change of clothes when he left.
• Today was quieter than previous days. It was OK to get out and about, says one of our friends.
• Late reports claim Ben Ali's sister Naima died of a heart attack while attempting to slide into Algeria with her sons.
• Articles like this one from HuffPo keep repeated a phrase that just ticks me off; always a riff on "Wikileaks confirmed what many Tunisians suspected..." It's the most patriarchal, jack-assed thing you could think. Did any Tunisians really doubt what the Trabelsis were up to? Were they unaware that the best business contracts went to the family? Did they somehow not notice Leila's stomping of the lycee in order to build her Carthage Academy? They somehow missed the largesse flaunted in the seaside towns? You can stop giving Julian Assange credit for this revolution at any time - the only thing Wikileaks did was confirm among WESTERNERS what Tunisians had known for the past decade. That is all.


From traditional media
• A really wonderful article about the new-found media freedom from the FT. It eloquently puts together the vibe I've been getting from our media friends in Tunisia.
• AJE: Ghannouchi and Mebazza quit the RCD. Opposition members have quit the Cabinet until RCDistes are purged. Marzouki returned today.
• Warning signs - the Communists and the Islamist party are, as expected, looking to play a role. Here's the real test of democracy.
• Tunisie Actualite: Sakr el-Matri's old piggybank, Zitouna Bank, is being nationalized. Nevertheless, there's a run on the bank, and they're losing $1M in deposits a day.
• Also from TA: Is Big Ben planning on heading to the Great White North?! Let's be sure to get him the French lyrics to 'O, Canada.'
• VOA: Crowley's saying all the right things.
• NPR: 1st really good story I've heard about the Trabelsi gang in American media.
• Nice, succinct piece from Esquire about who should worry about the Tunisian situation. Thanks for the heads-up, Vince!

Jan. 17 musings, and late updates

The more I read, and the more I think about what has gone on, and what will need to go on for democracy to take root in Tunisia, the more I am convinced I was wrong early on about the U.S. government's handling of this situation.

When Sec. Clinton equivocated, and we said 'we're not taking sides,' I was pretty outraged because right and wrong are so clear in Tunisia. Ben Ali is a bastard. The Jasmine Revolution was made up of people to whom we could relate, and admire. I was personally upset because America didn't join in wholeheartedly on the side of what was RIGHT.

More and more, I've thought - but what would that have meant? What would it have meant if we jumped in 100%?

Ever since the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. is a toxic brand name to connect with your product in the Arab world - we're ValuJet, the Pinto, New Coke, and Mel Gibson all rolled into one in many minds. Which is to say that if we come out and support one idea, or one movement within a country, all of a sudden it's pretty easy for the Islamists to paint that idea or movement as 'an American tool,' or worse. 

Honestly, I sort of think the best thing we could do would be to embrace the crazies. Our brand value is so poor, that might do more to marginalize them than anything else!

• Reporters at major newspapers are organizing to establish and publish two daily papers, al Chourouk and le Quotidien, beginning Tuesday.

• EPA photog Lucas Dolega now confirmed dead.

• A few days before Ben Ali was sent packing, our friends were saying that the army was refusing to fire on civilians, and that the chief of staff had been sacked. After Ben Ali's departure, many believed that the military, led by said CoS Gen. Rachid Ammar, was the only stabilizing force in the nation.

But over the past 24 hours, there have been increasing concerns among some of our friends that Gen. Ammar seems to be positioning himself through the media as the last honest man in Tunisia. This evening, The WSJ is lionizing Ammar as apolitical this evening. By all accounts, press and from our friends, the military has indeed done a great job. But one must wonder if Ammar is getting ready for something bigger come March.

• WP's Jennifer Rubin poses a question she thinks she has the answer to: Did Iraq have anything to do with Tunisia? She's suggesting that it did, that the flourishing of democracy between the Tigris and Euphrates emboldened the Tunisian people to rise up. My question to Ms. Rubin: Are you &*^*% kidding? You can't come up with two Arab nations more dissimilar than Tunisia and Iraq. One of my American friends recounted that a Tunisian friend said online Saturday, and not in a good way, "We're becoming Iraq." Hard to believe that Tunisia is becoming a political football for American neocons to attempt to justify Iraq. Rubin's right to challenge the wishy-washiness of American support thus far. But her big finish trying to tie this into Iraq simply flies in the face of logic and reason.

• Jerusalem Post has a pretty interesting editorial about the Tunisia situation, and inadvertently brings up one of the biggest conundrums. The column heralds GWB for his commitment to democracies in the Arab world... and then rails about Hamas. What's more important: Holding elections, or seeing your own guy win? 

Jan. 17 updates

From social media:
• OK, this is just gross. But I'm putting it out there anyway. One of the big parts of the Wikileaks link to the Tunisian story was the famous cable about Sakhr el-Matri's Tony Montana-esque pet tiger. The people of Tunisia got to the tiger. The tiger didn't make it. Here's the video proof. Don't say I didn't warn you that it was gross.
• Interior Ministry now confirms 78 dead since beginning of uprising. I still think that's a low-ball estimate.
• One of our friends linked to an amazing FB analysis about the events since Jan. 13. The author makes a very interesting case for the violence in Tunis being tied to the desperate soccer rivalries; Slim Chiboub, a son-in-law of Ben Ali, was a big wheel with Esperance Sportive de Tunis (EST), which is one of the two most popular teams in the nation. Did EST fans follow a secret Chiboub call for anarchy?
• The ministries of agriculture and environment have been merged.
• Messages from a few of the social media groups are calling for calm, in order to stave off further economic crisis, which they say (correctly) will attract extremists.
• Government offices will start reopening soon with civil service workers ordered back for limited hours Monday through Thursday, and the abbreviated hours for Friday and Saturday.


From traditional media sources:
• The composition of the new unity government was announced today. RCD kept most of the important jobs, which may not be a bad thing given the fact that the opposition parties have never been included in any details or preparation.
• Some Tunisians are not amused by the number of RCD members included in the new Cabinet. Protests broken up by water cannon and tear gas reported in Tunis.
• AJE reprints pieces of new Wikileaks documents related to Tunisia. Near the end of the article is this joke:
A popular joke tells of President Ben Ali being stopped by a traffic cop when out for a drive by himself. Ben Ali explains he is the President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, but the cop says "Never heard of you," and takes Ben Ali to the police station. The station chief looks at Ben Alis identification card and says, "Its okay. Hes related to the Trabelsis." [A reference to the infamously corrupt family of Ben Ali's wife, Leila] The joke outlines what most Tunisians feel today: compared to the strength and depth of the Trabelsi familys grip on Tunisia, Ben Ali is inconsequential.
• Estimated cost of damages over the past month: $3B Tunisian dinars. Forty-six National Guard barracks, 85 police stations, 66 stores, 43 banks, and a host of other government buildings destroyed. Innumerable other properties looted, windows broken, etc.
• Tunisie Actualite has a great piece (au Francais) about unanswered questions of the revolution. Among the best questions: Can you have free and fair elections within 60 days, under a state of emergency, with opposition parties that have been neutered by Ben Ali's history of repression?
• Let's not call it a 'wave' of self-immolation, but in the past day a Mauritanian man set himself ablaze, as did four Algerians and an Egyptian man.

Jan. 16 late updates

• Multiple media sources now reporting that French photog is not, in fact, dead, but in critical condition
• Amazing story in Le Monde about Ben Ali's final hours. Highlights: This was definitely a military coup, as we've been suspecting since it happened. The Hairdresser got away with $60M USD in gold bullion.
• The same story from Le Monde says it was the Libyan military, and not the French, who orchestrated Ben Ali's flight. It says that he was originally inbound to France, was ordered to land in Sardinia, and then headed for Saudi Arabia.

(updates, 1935 ET)
• This is the first really intelligent analysis I've seen out of CNN, and backs up what I was saying earlier about the overhyping of this as the beginning of a 'democratic tsunami' throughout the Mideast.
• And, no sooner do I write than, than there's a report of a rash of self-immolations in Algeria.
• This is a really encouraging article from the Independent. Despite the dramatic differences between the opposition parties, it seems there's agreement to get something done, and quickly - probably by the time we wake up in the U.S. on Monday morning.
• The Post talks to a Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, who is absolutely right on one count: This is an opportunity we can't let slip through our fingers. He has an interesting statement: 'During the Bush administration, officials on the ground would be saying 'We expect this..." ': He's right. Under Bush's State Department, we would have swaggered in like MacArthur with a list of demands early in the process, and in the process lost all respect and blown the opportunity. Obviously, we need to be more vocally supportive of the changes under way. But I promise you, if we cowboy up and overplay the hand, we'll pay for it for years. THAT is one of the central lessons of Iraq.
• Financial Times has a really excellent piece on the corruption of the Trabelsi Gang.
• Zeitgeist of the Tunisian youth: There's a Facebook group promoting the prison rape of Sakhr El-Matri.

Jan. 16 updates

One of our friends had a prophetic and profound statement earlier today on FB. To paraphrase in English, she said that the race to democracy has been miles and miles of running. But now we are in the last 100 meters, and they are the most critical leg of the race.
Developments on the ground have been mixed; it's very clear to everyone that the Army is really running things. But there are also a number of developments in government and civil society worth noting. The violence has calmed down from its peak on the evening Ben Ali abdicated, but things remain very tense.

(updates, 1415 ET)
• Tunisie Actualite confirms the arrest of eight Europeans in a car full of weapons. They've been transfered to government custody.
• Just confirmed: The new national government will be announced Monday on TNT.


• French photojournalist Lucas Dolega was confirmed dead today. Dolega was hit at close range by a tear gas grenade. His final images can be seen here. (Note, 1709 ET: There is a claim that Dolega is still alive from the French Foreign Ministry).
• Live fire still reported sporadically in Tunis. Tunisia actualite reporting that two snipers have been killed on roofs near the clock square on Ave HB.
• Social media forward going around telling people to stay off the streets - that a demonstration called for in the Tunis city center is, in fact, a ploy by the old gov't to get everyone in one place to be 'the targets for Ben Ali's snipers.'
• Rumors flying fast and furious about new Cabinet appointments, perhaps to be announced tomorrow.
• This is completely unconfirmed, but one of our friends says that the power-sharing agreement coming about right now will result in a Cabinet broken in thirds: One third will be remnants of PM Ghannouchi's government. One third will be members of the current, so-called 'legal opposition' parties, and the remaining third will be assorted human rights and women's rights activists. It's important to note that Tunisia, more than any other Arab nation, has worked diligently to promote and preserve women's rights.
• In a sign of normalcy, there's a social media movement urging people to go out during the daylight hours and tidy the cities up a bit by picking up debris. The neighborhood defense organizations are also being asked to provide protection for storekeepers during the day so the stores can safely reopen. Our friends report that many people are running desperately short of bread, milk, and other staples because there's simply no place open to purchase more.

From the media...
• EXCEPTIONAL piece about the U.S.'s possible future role in all of this from AJE. I would call this one of the few must-read pieces about the Tunisian situation as it relates to the United States.
• Confirmation of what our friends reported yesterday about Ben Ali's security chief being arrested. They nabbed him trying to cross into Libya.
• The fantastic Sultan al-Qassemi, whose Twitter feed has been quick and uniformly accurate, reports that there have been two separate incidents in which European passport-holders have been arrested while in possession of weapons, or attacking opposition party areas.
• Speaking of Libya, I FB'd some of the highlights from a typically bizarre outburst from Libya's Col. Muammar Qaddafi last night. It was nothing short of awesome. My favorite phrases - as read on SultanAlQassemi@Twitter were Facebook as "Bookface," calling Eastern Europeans "retards," and claiming the Assange & the WikiLeaks people were nothing better than "drunkards." In fairness to the Colonel, I don't have any first-hand knowledge of the Wikileaks staff's drinking habits. And, PS, if the Tunisians would just accept his Third Universal Theory of government, all would be well.
• This is PRICELESS. Slim Chaboub is piously telling the media that Ben Ali, himself, wasn't bad - it was his advisers. (Does this remind anyone else of a line from 'Raising Arizona'?)
• This doesn't happen often, but I agree completely with something Saeb Erakat said. Bibi Netanyahu is claiming that the Tunisian revolution is a sign of regional instability, and is one of the reasons he's uncomfortable with the peace process! Netanyahu's claim that stabilizing the entire reason is a prereq for negotiations is just silly.
• There are (IMHO) overstated reports about protest movements throughout the Arab world, as everyone wonders which country's government will fall next. To me, these reports smack of the Western world's long-held belief that 'all (insert ethnic group here) countries are the same!' Tunisia's situation shared some characteristics with other regimes, but Tunisian society is vastly, vastly different than other societies across the so-called "Arab world." In interest of completeness of reporting, the specific countries reporting scattered protests are Libya, Jordan, and Egypt.
• This might win the award for weirdest story to develop out of this: Italian circus wants out of Tunisia!

Jan. 15 developments

(update, 14:02 ET)
• Tunisie actualite reporting that Mebazza will form an interim government post-haste. This on the heels of an increasing number of reports that the military is really calling the shots right now, with the civilians as a friendly face out front.
• Spotted on several FB profiles, a photo: "Non aux Islamistes non a l'integrisme non a rached el'Ghannouchi"... "No to the Islamist Fundamentalists, no to Ghannouchi." Get the message, American Spectator, National Review, et. al.? Jackwagons...
• The military is using social media; to what ends, I am not sure. A few of our friends have put out messages that the military is requesting people not to post videos of checkpoints and maneuvers, because it helps the gangs & former IM operatives avoid them and further loot. Obviously, this is a double-edged sword - would anyone have given Ben Ali the same benefit of the doubt 36 hours ago had he called for a moratorium on video posting? - but the fact that many are reposting tells us either that there's trust in the military, or there's so much fear of the roving gangs that they're willing to give them the benefit of the doubt right now.
• @AbuAardvark (Marc Lynch of FP) says no one he spoke to today mentioned Twitter, FB, or Wikileaks. It's all unemployment, corruption, and oppression. Again, this is where I was saying that HuffPo's guy was dramatically overstating things.
• Our guys say that TV7 ain't TV7 any more - new logos call it Tunisian National Television. I guess the whole 'November 7' mystique ain't what it used to be. (for those curious, read my Tunisian glossary to learn about "The Change")
• This is unconfirmed, saw it on only one friend's posting: Supposedly the military helicopters are warning people to stay inside after dark; they will open fire from the sky.

(update, 11:41 ET)
• This is more than a little cool - talk about a people who understand community and shared responsibility in a way we may have forgotten. Our friends report that communities are forming local committees of responsible people to defend public and private property. This is maybe one of the most important building blocks of civil society in a democracy - people creating informal institutions for the public good. Obviously, the hope is that a functioning government will provide security within a free society, and soon. But this is a really positive step, and something they can build from.

• Ghannouchi gave a wide-ranging interview to Al-Jazeera at 1 a.m. local time. Measured, calm, and promised openness in a number of ways. Said the Army was attempting to restore order. Other reports through the night show the importance of that, to wit...
• Armed gangs in trucks and vans looted through the night. Our people - and not just one or two, but nearly all of our friends - confirm that the former internal security forces are part of these gangs, and may even be centrally directing the violence. The battles taking place in Tunis, then, are something just short of a civil war between the remnants of the interior ministry and the Army. (update: Reuters confirms Army sources claiming looters directed by Ben Ali loyalists).
• Fires all over the city. FB videos show the Geant shopping center in flames. Central train station burned to the ground.
• Military moved armor units to Carthage to protect presidential palace. Supposedly Ben Ali-Trabelsi properties in Carthage and Sidi Bou Said have been ransacked.
• Carthage-Tunis Int'l Airport reopened; so is Tunisian airspace.
• Heads of Ben Ali's security detail have been arrested.
• Imed Trabelsi's death confirmed. Bel Hassan Trabelsi arrested. I'm gonna guess his prison stint won't go very well. Both are brothers of the Hairdresser.
• Our most reliable source says that the Army has been arresting former IM police in Tunis.
• Sky reports vaguely on prison fires. I am told one of these was in Monastir, and that no less than 50 prisoners burned to death in the prison.
• This morning, Ghannouchi passed power to Fouad Mbazza. That's what should have happened under the constitution in the first place. What we don't know is if Mbazza's authority will be respected - he's an old RCD hand like Ben Ali and Ghannouchi. Constitutional Council says elections will be held in 60 days.
• I'm just wondering: Why is it that EVERY SINGLE conservative-leaning news organization in the U.S. buys into the 'al-Qaeda will rule Tunisia' fallacy? Are they, perhaps, a bit partial to dictatorship and opposed to democracy?
• And, out of fairness and balance, HuffPo's claim that all of this happened primarily because of Wikileaks is silly. Sure, many Tunisians did get a chance to see the documents before Ammam 404 blocked them. But to say that Julian Assange is the father of Tunisian freedom is just stupid.

Morning in Tunis

It will be dawn in Tunis in just about an hour, and the muezzin's call will waft over a city awaking after a night of terror and violence. Reports through the overnight are not pretty; armed gangs looting the city, some of the city's newest and splashiest buildings ablaze, and a general sense of insecurity that didn't exist under the iron fist. BBC World Service was reporting that helicopters are circling the city, fitted with loudspeakers (a la Col. Kilgore's Air Mobile) playing a message urging people to remain calm and stay indoors.
I am heading to bed after a day spent glued to the computer. I pray that this new day, the first day of a potentially free Tunisie, is peaceful for all of my friends.

What passes for analysis on this blog

     I do not pretend for a moment to be an expert on Tunisia or the Maghreb. I am simply a person who finds the region’s history and future to be interesting, and who believes that the region has an important role to play in the central ideological struggle of the early 21^st century.

     I also claim no omnipotence; I did not see this coming this fast. But I did see signs when I was in Tunisia in March that made me wonder – how strong is the popular support for the old ‘we trade our freedoms for security’ bargain?

     Two stories in particular made me wonder. One was on one of our last days in Tunis. We were riding a bus south of the city toward Manouba, along the #4 train line. When we rode out (about 0800), there was English graffiti on a metro station wall facing the road. It read: “ARE POLICE ARE BASTARDS.” When we went home, at lunch time, the graffiti had been painted over, as if it never happened. Both the fact that the message existed in the first place, and then that it was covered up so quickly, in my mind pointed to an inherent weakness of the regime.

     The second story was a little more interesting. We took a tour of an institution outside Tunis on one of our very first days in the country. During it, we had a chance to meet some young people, the same ages as the young Tunisians who were with us. One of the young men was anxious – VERY anxious – to speak with us, and spoke with clear disdain for the authorities, as one might expect from a dude with a Wu-Tang Clan courier bag. We told him he ought to be part of our group, and he sniffed, and said, no, I talk too much, “but it’s OK.”

     I guess these stories are to say that if you were looking, as Hunter Thompson said, with the right kind of eyes, you could see that there was a big, beautiful wave about to break. There was not just simmering discontent – that would suggest that the Tunisian people were ruled solely by emotion. There was something deeper and more powerful than that, and that was the fact that most of them understood that Ben Ali’s rule was completely illegitimate. Once that realization is made by all, it’s really just a matter of time until the structure begins to collapse. What has happened over the past four weeks is that people have talked – and maybe talked too much. But you know what? It’s OK.

     What follows now are my observations, based on my admittedly very limited view of events, about Western takes in general on the situation, and U.S. takes in particular.

Western Media Got it Wrong for a Long Time

     From the moment I started closely following this story on Christmas Eve, al-Jazeera had by far the best contextualized coverage of the unrest. This is not to say they were the most accurate – AJE was predicting on 26 Dec that Ben Ali had less than 24 hours left. But AJE understood that, quite early in the proceedings, this stopped being about jobs and food prices, and started being about civil liberties.

Unfortunately, the Western media stuck with the ‘food and job riots’ storyline right up to the point when it became clear the regime was going to collapse. Even then, U.S. media in particular kept referring to what had been predominantly peaceful protests met with government violence as ‘riots.’

     Credit where credit’s due, the LAT had it right first. Disappointingly, it wasn’t until the 14^th that NPR finally got it right by explaining that the movement began with employment issues, and quickly became something else.

     This has had me really reexamining in my head the way American media cover foreign stories, and makes me wonder how many other things I read every day that are completely out of context.

Any serious observer – hell, any casual observer – of Tunisia knew that the coverage was ridiculous. 

Western Diplomacy Got Some of it Right and Some of it Wrong

     The Western world has been all over the bloody map in their support, then neutrality, then non-support of Ben Ali over the past five days.

     U.S. diplomats can claim we’ve been consistent on our Mideast foreign policy all they want, but the waffling this week was nothing short of embarrassing.

     On Monday, State said that both sides needed to calm down, and we were still at least mildly supportive of the regime. By Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was saying that we weren’t picking sides. Once Elvis had left the building, we suddenly grew a pair and said that we supported the Tunisian people’s right to choose their own government all along. It was embarrassing, and shameful. From our nation's very birth, through initiatives both liberal and conservative, we’ve claimed that democracy is an natural right for all people; I believe the phrase was that these rights are ‘self-evident.’ For Secretary Clinton and the State flaks this week to equivocate when this movement was on the ropes was simply inexcusable. I get it – I get that we can’t just come out and support insurrections in other countries. But we can be a little more nuanced in answers, and say something to the effect of ‘We are picking sides! We’re on the side of increasing liberty and civic participation. If that can happen under Ben Ali, super. If it can’t, we reconsider.’

     Of course, that would require identifying core principles and sticking to them – and not just negotiating alliances of convenience based on whatever the crisis du jour is. God knows, Bourguiba and Ben Ali were our boys against the commies, and Ben Ali was our ‘stalwart ally’ against al-Qaeda.

     Oddly enough, our waffling was downright heroic compared to the typically feckless performance by Nicolas Sarkozy’s government. First, Sarkozy’s government decried the situation in Tunisia – and then proffered military cooperation to Ben Ali! By mid-week, they had come to a policy of neutrality, before today voicing support for the Tunisian people. God almighty, it wasn’t enough to screw things up during the colonial era, was it?!

Analysis By Nincompoops

     I don’t claim to be an expert about Tunisia. But a lot of people - some of whom are pretty smart folks - are making some pretty dumb assertions about the situation.

    Marc Lynch, whose reporting I grew to admire, had one part of one story with which I really took issue. Specifically, he said that State’s decision to locate the MEPI office in Tunisia was ill-advised, because Ben Ali was such a brutal dictator. And he said this just hours before Ben Ali left; forced out by his own people, who in true democratic fashion, took to the streets and said ‘no.’

     I feel it redundant to point this out, but Tunisia is the first of the Arab dictatorships to actually do something about their dictator! Perhaps that choice to locate MEPI in Tunisia was inspired, and not insane.

     Perhaps my favorite of the moron commentaries came from (where else?) the American Spectator. This guy is worried, worried!, that this is the first step toward Tunisia being ruled by Sharia law under al-Qaeda!! Seriously, man, can you even find Tunisia on a map? Because if you’d ever been there, or ever spent even a day hanging out with Tunisians, you’d know this is about as likely as Ben Ali coming home to a ticker tape parade down Ave. Habib Bourguiba. 

     And, Mr. Larison of the American Conservative, your logic is just a white hot mess.

Late updates, 14 Jan.

• OK, here's the straight poop on the Flight of the Conquereds today, and how things got messy:
Ben Ali got shuffled out of Tunis around sunset, supposedly via helo to Malta (that's where the Malta story came from). The helos may or may not have been French military (which would explain the Paris story). Now comes the interesting part. Sources say that the Hairdresser was packed off to Dubai a couple days ago (one last shopping spree on the Jumhuriyah's credit card?). Ben Ali's going to meet up with her there. There's some disagreement on which of the Gulf States has taken him in, but it seems clear now that he's retiring to the beach. (Update, 11:55 p.m.: The Ben Ali clan has taken refuge in Saudi Arabia. As my friend Catherine pointed out, it's the same place Idi Amin retired, sort of an "Old Dictator's Home."
• This is a scary night for our friends. I can only imagine their fears; you certainly don't trust the police or the military that much; but their absence means you've given the night over to looters. I pray to our common God that they and their families remain safe. A report from one friend says 'the gunshots you're hearing are the military bringing order, let's stay calm at this historic moment.'
• Reports indicate that the military is taking control of some areas, including Bizerte.
• Calls for blood donation are going out among the social media sites.

From the 'better late than never" department

President Obama, this afternoon, via HuffPo:

I condemn and deplore the use of violence against citizens peacefully voicing their opinion in Tunisia, and I applaud the courage and dignity of the Tunisian people. The United States stands with the entire international community in bearing witness to this brave and determined struggle for the universal rights that we must all uphold, and we will long remember the images of the Tunisian people seeking to make their voices heard. I urge all parties to maintain calm and avoid violence, and call on the Tunisian government to respect human rights, and to hold free and fair elections in the near future that reflect the true will and aspirations of the Tunisian people.

As I have said before, each nation gives life to the principle of democracy in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people, and those countries that respect the universal rights of their people are stronger and more successful than those that do not. I have no doubt that Tunisia's future will be brighter if it is guided by the voices of the Tunisian people.

Ben Ali gone

Ben Ali's gone (for now, see below); the plane is over Libyan airspace en route to Malta.
A number of sources reporting that PM Mohamed Ghannouchi has been sworn in as the new president. In a statement, Ghannouchi is (as best I can translate) promising to continue the reforms.

(updates, 2:06 p.m.)
• Ben Ali's destination is up for debate. Some are claiming that France took him in, AJE is still reporting that he's in Malta. AJE now reporting Paris.
• There is a LOT of debate about Ben Ali's departure. Multiple FB groups reporting that Ghannouchi's rise to power, under Article 56 of the Constitution, is only delegated UNTIL Ben Ali's return!
• Furthermore, Ghannouchi's leap-frogging of
• Fitch is downgrading the dinar
• VERY interesting report from our friends: The cargo planes that evac'd Ben Ali were French military.

(updates, 2:32 p.m. ET)
• Multiple sources now reporting Paris is Ben Ali's destination.
• Sky News: "The people pulling the strings in the short term and probably the medium term will be the army and at the moment this is not a revolution, this is a coup"
• International media are GROSSLY underestimating the numbers of people protesting in Tunis. They have been claiming "hundreds" or "thousands." Just saw CNN footage of Ave. Habib Bourguiba absolutely FILLED with people. Between the traffic lanes, the neutral ground, and the sidewalks - and filled for at least 10 blocks - that crowd easily numbered in the tens of thousands.
• US State Dept: Tunisians have a right to choose their own government. Wow, that's not what we were saying earlier this week!
• French are insisting 'all Tunisians must cooperate with the new government.' Way to misplay ANOTHER card, Sarkozy.
• al Arabiya reporting on a pilot who refused to fly the Hairdresser and her family out. Still unclear if they actually got out with Ben Ali on the military aircraft or not.


(updates, 4:30 p.m.)
• Multiple SM reports say that Imed Trabelsi, the Hairdresser's nephew who was implicated in the yacht theft made famous in the Wikileaks documents, has died of a stab wound. He was supposedly one of the Trabelsi clan that tried to get out of Dodge earlier today.
• Latest rumors have Ben Ali headed for Jeddah.
• There is substantial worry in the cities that the near-anarchy is creating a Ben Ali-sized vacuum for looting. Many of our friends are expressing worries this evening about armed gangs running the streets.

We'll see about 'pain et eau,' but the 'Ben Ali non' part seems to have taken

Things on the ground are changing rapidly.

* AJE & MoJo reporting that Ben Ali has fled the country. No other confirmation of this, but the social media sources are absolutely melting down with this info. Previously reliable Twitter feeds claim Khaddafi arranged for Ben Ali's exit to Malta, on a couple of military transports that went wheels-up around 12:30 p.m. ET.
* Tunisian airspace has been indefinitely closed, and Carthage-Tunis Airport is under military lockdown.
* The nationwide state of emergency declared this evening by Ben Ali is reverberating through the FB & Twitter communities. Soldiers have orders to shoot anyone who doesn't immediately obey police/military orders.
* VERY circumstantial claim, but supposedly some of the Trabelsis have been arrested as they tried to flee through the C-T airport.

Jan. 14 Updates

As predicted, Ben Ali's promises last night were:     
     a.) Empty, and,
     b.) Nowhere near enough to assuage the pent-up anger and frustration of the Tunisian people

I'm starting to back away from belittling the assertion made last week in The Guardian that this is reminiscent of December 1989 in Romania. It is now conceivable that, by the beginning of next week, Ben Ali and the Trabelsis could be  - dare we say? - gone.

One of the beautiful things about freedom is that it's intoxicating. A little isn't enough. Ben Ali sent the message that some freedoms would be granted. What people heard was that they could protest more, to gain more freedoms.

Today has seen not a diminishing, but a ramping-up, of the protests. As our sources reported last night, a general strike was on for today, with a massive demonstration at 11 a.m. local time. The government response was predictably violent, and the situation is deteriorating. Here's what media are reporting:

* Ben Ali has dissolved the government. Is this in preparation for the opposition's demands for a national unity government, or is he consolidating power for a final stand? Also called for early elections. Probably not going to be enough.
* Almost all of our sources are confirming that last nights pro-Ben Ali celebrations were a sham. The protestors were allegedly all carrying exactly the same portrait of Ben Ali, with conveniently similar printed signs in support of him.
* Guardian's live blog is really excellent. Confirms overnight minimum death toll at 12. So much for not firing live rounds.
* The chant of the protests outside the IM: "Pain et eau et Ben Ali non"; or in the less lyrical English, "Bread, water, Ben Ali out!"
* Sarkozy's feckless government is, once again, blowing with the wind, and now advising Ben Ali to back down. Amazing.
* More resignations from the Ben Ali government over the crackdown.
* Once again, Lynch hits it on the head: Where are all of the conservatives who preached so piously about supporting democracy efforts in the Mideast?

In the wake of the speech...

• Many reports that gunfire is ongoing in corners of the country.
• REALLY interesting piece from FP... if legitimate, this resignation letter from the foreign minister would be one of the more interesting things to have developed.

MAJOR UPDATE: Ben Ali concessions?!

• Ben Ali has announced that he will step down in 2014. Surprising he admits it - not surprising it's going to happen, as he's already in his mid-70s!
• He claims he has ordered police not to fire live rounds anymore.
• Says he understands the situation requires 'profound, deep, and comprehensive' change.
• Reductions in prices of staple foods have been ordered.
• Believe it when you see it, but he says there will be increased freedom of expression in the media, and 'real' political pluralism.

• Our friends report honking in the streets in Tunis; celebration in Sidi Bou Zid. Early reception to the national address seems to be positive. 1 of our ppl says it's what we would call 'astroturf' - fake grass roots planted by RCD.
• Friends report that YouTube is available for the first time in years; Al-Jazeera also unblocked by the notorious Amman 404.
• These following reports are interesting, vague, and unconfirmed at this time. But now, two hours after Ben Ali's speech, there are still reports of gunfire from around the country.
• Unions have called a general strike for tomorrow, and a protest for 1100 local time in central Tunis. We'll see how the IM & army respond.

Jan. 13 updates

* Another fantastic piece from FP's Marc Lynch about the US press' editorial silence on Tunisie.
* Exactly where does France stand on this 'Jasmine Revolution?' Time reports that their position is mostly neutral, but silently supportive of Ben Ali. Yesterday, several sources were reporting that France was actually offering the Tunisian government military equipment! Today, France is condemning the 'disproportionate violence' of the government. It's hard to tell exactly where the French are coming from, other than perhaps they're trying to bandwagon to the side of the 'winners'
* Even Tunisia's ambassadors admit the roots of these problems are real (Bloomberg).
* The ineffectualness of the U.N. is on full display in this headline: "UN rights boss urges Tunisia to probe deaths and torture". I'm sure Ben Ali will get RIGHT on that.
* Supposedly Ben Ali's getting back on TV tonight to make another address. Note to aides: Please make sure phone is unplugged!
* I heard this rumor last night and dismissed it for lack of evidence. Serves me right that the NYT today reports that one of the Trabelsi gang had their Hammemet mansion burned down.
* The professor killed in Douz yesterday has now been identified as a Tunisian-French dual citizen. He was an IT professor. Another person holding dual Swiss-Tunisian citizenship was shot and killed in Dar Chaabane.
* All sporting events have been cancelled, and a handful of EU countries are issuing travel warnings.

Big update coming soon

One hates to use the phrase 'turning point' cheaply, but it seems that today is one of those junctures - though it is too early to say which direction the situation will turn. As I write this at 3:30 p.m. ET in the U.S., it is evening in Tunis, and the capital city is under a all-out curfew. The city was packed with a huge military presence, from the medina to the suburbs today. Protests were reported in cities across the country, as were casualties inflicted by government forces.

Prior commitments mean it will be late this evening (US time) before I get to update everything. But the developments are absolutely fascinating - if you'd asked anyone the first week of protests what the odds were of Ben Ali being unseated, you'd have had to say that it was maybe - maybe! - 1%. But every shred of news coming out - whether through traditional or social media - indicates that the dissatisfaction with Ben Ali is far, far more widespread than anyone has believed. Things once said in the cover of darkness among friends with a resigned laugh are being shouted in the streets, and on the 'net. I'll have much more to come late this evening.

For now...
• NYT confirms what we heard last night, that Sakhr el-Matri beat feet out of town, and the rest of the clan may not be far behind
• Foreign Policy on repression on journalists.
• Reuters confirms something heard earlier on social media. A professor (our sources say a journalism prof) was among the dead in the Saharan city of Douz
• Tunindex continues to plummet with the unrest
• IFJ backs journalists' strike

Clinton: "We're not taking sides"

My ears are red, and my blood pressure is up after reading this one. I get that you're speaking to a Mideast audience, but as the "Monday Night Football" guys say: "Come awwwwwwn, man!" We're not taking sides? Really? Because one side here is for transparency, civil liberties, and democracy. The other side ain't. And we're not taking sides? I suppose we shouldn't have taken sides in Iran two years ago. C'mawwwwn, man.
The only way all of this comes to an acceptable resolution is if the international community can keep the heat on Ben Ali just enough that he understands he can't get away with murder. If we back off - if we allow him to think that both sides are on equal standing in our eyes - we're letting him win. Keep the pressure on.... maybe intensify it a little bit... and it backs him into a corner where he has to let off the gas a little bit, where the regime has to open up a little bit. That's the only even minimally-acceptable outcome of this, and the ball's in our court.

Media coverage, 12 Jan

Most of what we learned through social media overnight has been confirmed this morning through major international press. Ben Ali has indeed deployed the active military throughout major cities, including Tunis. The deployment has not just been in neighborhoods, but in the main districts of the city in full view of whatever tourists and international businesspersons may still be in town. There's no hiding what's going on anymore, which begs the question: If the international community sees someone getting mugged on a street corner, will they actually do anything about it? Here are some of the major headlines this morning:

* PM Ghannouchi says that all prisoners are being freed - except those who are guilty!
* AJE reporting on deployment of troops in Tunis. Confirms that the big protests yesterday - suppressed by tear gas and shots fired - was indeed on Ave HB, just blocks from the medina.
* Tunisian Embassy in Switzerland was firebombed last night, according to Deutsche Welle.
* AFP: Interior minister's dismissal confirmed; sacking of Army CoS still not verified officially, but take it to the bank. Note: Don't confuse the Tunisian position of interior minister with somethign like the U.S. Secretary of the Interior! The Tunisian interior minister is in charge of internal security; quashing dissidents, operating semi-secret prisons, suppressing the Web. This is a pretty big firing - though the meaning of it is unclear. Was he fired for not holding down the revolt enough? Or for being too brutal? How's Ben Ali gonna spin this?
* AJE was reporting the highly dubious claim that the army had overthrown the government last night. Nothing from sources in the country would back this up; no one's seen the plane go wheels-up from Carthage-Tunis yet, either.

Unbelievable: Ben Ali's portrait, torn & burned.

This was in the Kasserine protests.

Jan. 11 updates: Situation fluid, and changing rapidly

The profile pic for the "2010-11 School's In" group on Facebook.

It's worth noting today that many of the social media organizations have adopted the Guy Fawkes mask of the film "V for Vendetta" as part of their graphics package. When I started following this situation before Christmas, such imagery seemed a little hyperbolic. Now, I'm not so sure. Today, the protesters took to the heart of the Tunisian regime - the Bardo district. The harder Ben Ali's forces crack down on this movement, the more his regime resembles that of the fictional Adam Sutler.

Information is coming in fast; really fast. Some of the changes in the situation are nothing short of remarkable.

• The journalists' union - publicly supportive of the regime as recently as a week ago - is now launching a nationwide strike, saying they are unwilling to lie anymore!
• Three separate reliable sources confirm large protests in the Bardo. This is a section of Tunis that is home to the museum and many government buildings, including the Parliament. This is a really huge development: This ain't the hinterland, this ain't a locals-only section of the city, this is the government's home-field.
• One source reports a girl was shot dead during the Bardo protests.
• Police and active-duty military are attempting to break up protests from the Bardo down to Manouba. Sounds like it's all along the P5 highway, and video shows 'flash-mob' like protests on the No. 4 line metro.
• Credibility of this report is suspect, but stranger things have been proven true: Supposedly, government-backed 'thugs' are dressing in ski masks and looting, while being filmed by Tunisian TV crews. Allegedly this is being done to be broadcast on television to back up Ben Ali's claims of 'terrorism' by the protesters.

(below is 10 p.m. ET update)
• Unrest reported in the southern city of Tozeur.
• Ben Ali's son-in-law (and once and future heir apparent) Sakhr el-Matri has arrived in Montreal... rats from a sinking ship? (update: multiple sources confirming el-Matri's arrival now).
• Federal troops, and troop transports, have been reported all over Tunis, from Ave HB, up to Belvedere Park, and around the lake neighborhoods.
• The Economist now republishing the rampant rumor that the army chief of staff has been dismissed for ordering the active-duty soldiers NOT to fire on demonstrators. Heard this yesterday; seemed far-fetched. Is this going the way of Romania in '89; Moscow in '91?
• The Twitterati are now referring to this as the "Jasmine Revolt," after the Tunisian national flower. I guess every movement's gotta have a name.

Media coverage, 11 Jan

Things are moving rapidly, and international media is beginning to wake up to the scale and persistence of the movement. Here are a quick few updates from coverage today. Will update with more info from social media sites later this afternoon:

* Yesterday's death toll is being revised constantly upward. The government figure has gone from 7 confirmed dead yesterday to 20 today. Union sources - which have so far been solid - are saying the number is more than 50. Photos and videos of the dead are making their way out through social media.
* The instability is having a marked effect on the Tunisian economy. The Tunindex collapsed yesterday amid the unrest. Bloomberg coverage here
* The journalist's union - historically a very moderate, pro-government organization - yesterday assembled at their Tunis headquarters to protest the regime's crackdown on coverage of the protest movement. Keep in mind, this is the same union that put al-Jazeera on blast a week ago for 'distorting events.' The times, they are a-changin'. Fast.
* The UN has, at long last, stepped in with a bland statement. Ban-Ki Moon spoke this morning, about 'all parties coming together in dialogue.' No prob, chief. Get the gov't to stop shooting first!!!
* Time Magazine, thank God, has changed their earlier headling on this story. Originally, it said that the 'moderate regimes' in Tunisia and Algeria were in trouble. Moderate in what way? Anti-terrorism, sure. Free society, not so much.
* One source is claiming that the opposition parties are calling for a 'national unity government' to be formed. Whether this is their way of sucking up further to Ben Ali; or whether it is the other parties finally finding their guts is not known. But it would present Ben Ali with perhaps one further option: Is he politically nimble enough at this point to loosen restraints on political participation just enough to stop the violence, but not enough to give up control?
* This article in Foreign Policy highlights one of the real problems this movement has. There's not a clear ideology, other than 'we're pissed off!'

(Updates, 10:30 p.m.)
• AFP: US 'concerned' about reports of excessive force.